Fox News Poll: How Spanberger won Virginia governor

Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to win the Virginia governor s race tallying essential leads among reliable Democratic groups while capitalizing on economic worries and the deep unpopularity of President Donald Trump in the state Spanberger will be the first woman to hold the office in the Old Dominion State The former Virginia congresswoman replaces term-limited Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin who was the first Republican to win a statewide voting process in Virginia in years when he was elected in That race surprised numerous in that it was much closer than the presidential race the year before where Biden defeated Trump by points This year it was the other way around with Spanberger well exceeding the presidential margin that saw Harris over Trump by only six points Trump was undoubtedly a factor in the race even though he wasn t on the ballot Close to six in ten Virginia voters disapproved of the job he is doing while more than half announced they strongly disapprove The vast majority of these voters backed Spanberger ABIGAIL SPANBERGER SEALS HISTORIC VIRGINIA WIN ENDING GOP S GLENN YOUNGKIN ERATwo-thirds of Spanberger supporters noted their vote was expressly to show opposition to the president That compares to about one-third of those backing current Lt Governor Earle-Sears who stated theirs was to show aid Aside from those sending a signal of opposition to Trump Spanberger s strong appeal to Black voters college graduates and the young was more than enough to offset Earle-Sears strength among White men White evangelicals and those with no college degree according to near-final statistics from the Fox News Voter Poll a survey of more than Virginia voters Not even the prospect of voting for the first Black woman governor of any state seemed to move Black voters who backed Spanberger by about a nine to one margin Spanberger also benefited from a considerable gender gap Indeed of women backed her compared to for Earle-Sears a -point advantage and men supported Earle-Sears by points for Spanberger Earle-Sears leaving a gender gap of points one of the largest in modern memory Neither party is very popular in the state half of voters reported they have an unfavorable opinion of Democrats and more than half felt that way about Republicans Between the two candidates however Spanberger garnered a net-positive rating more than half had a favorable opinion of her compared to Sears and more than half viewed her unfavorably Voters continue to be happy with Youngkin More than half approved of the job he is doing as governor The top characteristic Virginia voters craved in a candidate was someone who shares their values followed by someone who is honest and trustworthy Values voters broke for Earle-Sears while Spanberger carried those looking for honesty Spanberger focused heavily on the economic activity during the campaign specifically banging home the deleterious effects that Trump administration efforts to upend administration in DC are having on Virginia home to a large number of federal workers More than six in ten of those federal employees backed Spanberger The financial system was by far the top issue for Virginia voters with close to half ranking it as the majority fundamental Those voters broke significantly for Spanberger Healthcare was the second greater part essential concern another issue Spanberger hit hard in the wake of the federal cabinet shutdown and people facing the realizable loss of wellness benefits Those voters who stated healthcare was their number one issue went overwhelmingly for Spanberger by about four to one Overall Virginia voters about six in ten think the economic system is doing pretty well Those voters backed Earle-Sears But when it comes to their own family s finances largest part disclosed they were either holding steady or falling behind Both of those groups went for Spanberger And of the six in ten voters who disclosed the federal budget cuts had affected their family finances they backed Spanberger as well Two issues that got important attention from Earle-Sears in the campaign were controversies about trans rights and the disclosure of violent texts from the Democratic candidate for Attorney General Fewer than half of voters exposed the texts sent by Democrat Jay Jones threatening a fellow lawmaker disqualifying from the job of attorney general Those who did broke strongly for Earle-Sears The rest though who stated the texts were concerning but not disqualifying were not a concern or who totally didn t know enough went strongly for Spanberger It was suspected that particular voters might split their votes backing Spanberger for governor but Republican Jason Miyares for attorney general That did not happen Those Democrats defecting to Miyares remained in the single digits and Jones was declared the winner On transgender rights voters have mixed views Half disclosed endorsement has gone too far the position Earle-Sears took with special emphasis on its effect on schools and girls sports The other half however stated aid has not gone far enough or it s been about right SPANBERGER SAYS VIRGINIA 'CHOSE PRAGMATISM OVER PARTISANSHIP' IN MASTERY SPEECHThose who announced it'd gone too far backed Earle-Sears by almost four to one while those who disagreed went hard for Spanberger In the end the headwinds of Trump s unpopularity and the ire of the vast number of federal workers in the state was too much for Earle-Sears to overcome Only about a third of Virginia voters are happy with the direction the country is going and while these voters overwhelmingly backed Earle-Sears the other two-thirds went big for Spanberger Of the four in ten who are definitely angry about how things are going almost all of them more than nine in ten backed Spanberger Demanded about Trump s immigration enforcement efforts more than half say it has gone too far and perhaps not surprisingly the majority of these voters backed Spanberger Almost all Democrats voted for Spanberger as did a inadequate Republicans Earle-Sears was unable to generate any sort of crossover appeal while winning most of Republicans The small group of independents favored Spanberger MethodologyThe Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with Virginia registered voters This survey was conducted October to November concluding at the end of voting on Electoral process Day The poll combines facts collected from registered voters online and by telephone with input collected in-person from Electoral contest Day voters at precincts per state city In the final step all the pre-election survey respondents and Ballot Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode absentee early-in-person and Electoral contest Day based on the estimated composition of the state city s final electorate Once votes are counted the survey results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state Results among more than Virginia voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus percentage points including the design effects The error margin is larger among subgroups